Who is Really Buying Health-Led Food? Why Catchment Matters More Than National Trends

Based on five sessions delivered at The UK Food & Drink Shows 2026, across the Restaurant Stage and The Grocer Stage. 

Speakers

• Flora Zwolinski, Insight Lead, Lumina Intelligence
• Eva Humphries, Independent Clinical Nutritionist

Estimated read time: 16 minutes

Quick read summary

1. Food to go is growing ahead of the UK eating out market, but almost all of that growth sits in London, midweek, at work, among consumers aged 25 to 30.
2. GLP-1 usage peaks in the 25 to 34 age group while obesity prevalence peaks at 55 to 74, so the consumer buying health-led products is not the consumer who most needs them.
3. Operators are protecting margin by pricing new dishes above existing ones rather than raising the price of familiar lines.
4. Protein is the one demand signal that held across every demographic group in the April 2026 data.
5. Successful health-led products depend on the audience at each location, making local shopper insights just as important as national trends.

The age group most likely to be taking a GLP-1 weight loss medication in the UK is 25 to 34. The age group with the highest obesity prevalence is 55 to 74.

Around 20 per cent of current users live in London, a region with below-average obesity, and more than 90 per cent of them pay for the medication privately rather than receiving it on the NHS.

Who is actually buying the health-led products?

Research presented by Lumina Intelligence, the research arm of William Reed and the data behind much of the 2026 programme, put 4.7 per cent of UK adults on a GLP-1 medication as at April 2026, with a further 5.2 per cent having used one in the past and 9.6 per cent considering it. That is close to one in five adults with some relationship to the category, which is a substantial pool of spending power.

The composition of that pool is where the commercial problem sits. Lumina segmented current users and found ABC1 affluent millennials living in London over-indexing at 252 against the total adult population. At the other end, C2DE consumers outside London and outside the millennial bracket account for around a third of all UK adults and only a fifth of GLP-1 users, an index of 63.Those two groups do not behave alike. Compared with a typical consumer in their own demographic, the affluent London group is more quality led, more brand led and more health conscious. The C2DE group outside London is less quality led, less brand led and less health conscious than its own peer group, while being more value led. A product engineered to signal quality and nutritional benefit speaks directly to one and past the other.

Zwolinski’s point has a direct operational consequence. The apparent finding that GLP-1 consumers over-index on convenience store visits is not caused by the appetite suppressant at all. It is caused by the fact that current users skew towards affluent Londoners, who visit convenience stores more often anyway. Among C2DE users, convenience visits fall.

One signal did survive across both extremes. Higher protein was the single consistent driver, wanted by GLP-1 users regardless of income, age or region.

Protein is the only demand signal in this data that held across every demographic group, which makes it the safest health claim to build a national range around.

Is the health shift real, or well marketed?

52 per cent of consumers said in early 2026 that they hold a less favourable view of ultra processed foods than they used to, and the large majority of those said their view had changed within the previous year. Clean label sits directly downstream of that sentiment, and it is now visible at the fixture rather than only in survey data. Shoppers are scanning barcodes in the aisle using food scanner apps that rate a product and name the ingredient dragging the score down.

Eva Humphries, an independent clinical nutritionist who presented on The Grocer Stage and states she has no commercial stake in the sector, put a warning under all of it that anyone building a range should hear early.

Nutrition science is a young field, headline findings move, and a product positioned on a single study is exposed when the evidence shifts underneath it.

The gap between stated and actual behaviour is not a rounding error in this category. It is where the commercial risk sits, and it is why a range built on survey enthusiasm can list well and sell badly.

Humphries reads the direction of travel as a move from taking bad ingredients out to putting good ones in.

She expects nutrient density, meaning the quantity of nutrients relative to calories, to become the next widely used consumer term, and treats it as the natural progression of clean label rather than a replacement for it. In practice that means balancing macronutrients on pack rather than removing a named additive from it.

She also pointed to a related correction that is already measurable. Vegan and vegetarian consumers fell from around 10 per cent of the UK population in 2021 to 7 per cent by January 2024, and the reason given was health, with plant-based meals increasingly seen as ultra processed and low in protein. What replaced that group was not a return to indifference. It was flexitarianism buying better-quality meat and fish, alongside organic, which has now recorded fourteen consecutive years of growth.

Which of these trends will not last?

Fibre. The market data treats fibre as a live and growing driver, with fibre maxing reaching around 150 million views on TikTok by April 2026 and consumer awareness of gut health rising alongside it. Humphries expects the trend to fade in its current form. Her objection is technical: added inulin is not equivalent to fibre from an apple, which arrives packaged with antioxidants, vitamins and minerals and breaks down slowly. She sees fibre remaining important while the fibre maxing framing declines, and warns that adding fibre for its own sake produces digestive effects consumers will not repeat-purchase through.

Functional ingredients. The market data reads added-benefit products as a growth story, and the show floor supported that. Humphries predicts growing consumer mistrust of functional claims, particularly in drinks, on the grounds that shoppers are catching up with how loosely the language is used.

GLP-1 itself. Humphries argued the UK market is misunderstood and given too much airtime relative to its actual commercial weight.

Her broader point is about language rather than any single ingredient.

When she surveyed her own audiences on what they wanted more of in supermarkets, the most common answer was less plastic packaging. The industry had been talking about carbon. Humphries also cited a Food Standards Agency finding that consumers place more trust in farmers than in retailers or brands, which points to who should be fronting a provenance claim.

Two markets she flagged as genuinely underserved: older consumers, where she reports the fastest online growth in health and wellness buying coming from the over-60s, and children’s snacking, which she describes as heavily marketing led and poorly served.

How should a buyer decide whether a health-led range fits their shopper base?

1. Profile the catchment, not the country. Establish whether the shopper base skews towards the affluent urban millennial group where health-led ranges over-index, or the demographic where they under-index. The same product performs differently in each.
2. Check the protein claim first. Protein is the one driver that held across both extremes of the data. If a product cannot carry a protein or nutrient-density message, it is relying on a segmented signal.
3. Read the claim in two or three seconds. Shoppers are scanning ingredient decks with apps at the shelf. A benefit that needs a paragraph will not survive the fixture.
4. Discount stated intent. Consumers over-report healthy behaviour. Weight survey enthusiasm below actual purchase data, and pilot before you list nationally.
5. Introduce price on new lines. Recovering cost through a new dish or format protects trust in a way that repricing an existing line does not.
6. Test the evidence base. If the product’s positioning rests on one recent study, ask what happens commercially if that study is contradicted.

What this means for food and drink buyers

For convenience and forecourt retailers: Before ranging a health-led fixture, check whether your catchment matches the affluent urban profile where these products over-index. In a less affluent or older catchment, expect limited uptake regardless of product quality.

For grocery and wholesale buyers: Treat protein as the national claim and everything else as regional. Segment health ranging by store cluster rather than rolling out a single planogram.

For foodservice and hospitality operators: Recover cost through new dishes and smaller formats at the same sourcing standard, and hold price on the lines your regulars order by name.

For manufacturers and brand owners: Brief new product development in food around a benefit legible in seconds, and stress-test any positioning that depends on a single piece of nutrition research.

For farm shop, deli and specialist retailers: The flexitarian consumer buying better-quality meat and fish is a growth audience, and farmers carry more consumer trust than retailers or brands when a provenance claim is made.

FAQ's

What is driving growth in the UK food to go market?

Growth is coming from existing customers buying more often rather than from new customers entering the market. In the year to April 2026, penetration rose only 0.2 percentage points while frequency rose 1.6 per cent. The additional occasions are concentrated in London, on Mondays and midweek, at work, among consumers aged 25 to 30, largely driven by employers requiring more office days.

Who is the typical GLP-1 consumer in the UK?

Current users skew heavily towards affluent millennials in London. Around 20 per cent live in the capital, over 90 per cent pay privately, and usage peaks in the 25 to 34 age bracket, which is close to the opposite of where obesity prevalence sits. This is expected to change as NHS provision widens.

What does clean label mean in practice for a food brand?

It refers to short, recognisable ingredient lists that a shopper can read and understand without specialist knowledge. There is no legal definition. It is driven by consumer sentiment towards ultra processed foods, and it now operates at the shelf through food scanner apps that rate products and identify which ingredient is pulling a score down.

Why is chicken taking share on UK menus?

Chicken grew around two percentage points on pub and bar menus and 4.5 percentage points in quick service restaurants in the year to April 2026, on the combination of versatility, broad appeal and a lower price point. Beef declined over the same period under inflation and supply pressure.

Is the health trend in food and drink reliable enough to build a range on?

Partly. Protein held as a demand signal across every demographic group in the data, which makes it the most durable. Fibre maxing and functional ingredient claims were both contested, with an independent nutritionist predicting consumer mistrust of functional claims, particularly in drinks. Consumers also consistently over-report healthy behaviour, so stated intent should be discounted against actual purchase data.

Author and speakers

• Flora Zwolinski, Insight Lead, Lumina Intelligence. Zwolinski leads consumer insight at Lumina Intelligence, the data, research and insight arm of the William Reed Group, specialising in consumer behaviour across convenience retail, the out of home market and health and nutrition. She presented twice at the 2026 shows, on GLP-1 consumer behaviour and on the annual food to go market report.
• Eva Humphries, Independent Clinical Nutritionist. Humphries has ten years of clinical experience focused on metabolic disorders, teaches chefs in foodservice and contract catering, and runs consumer research through cookery demonstrations and public speaking at food and drink festivals.

Sessions this article draws on: "GLP-1 and the changing needs of consumers", "What’s driving the UK’s health and nutrition agenda: Key trends shaping food and drink".

Market data in this article was presented by Lumina Intelligence, part of the William Reed Group, which also organises The UK Food & Drink Shows. Based on sessions delivered at the UK Food & Drink Shows 2026.